{
  "evidence_type": "historical_replay",
  "not": "Not Paper trading and not live execution. No orders were sent to Kalshi.",
  "recorded_on": "2026-10-19",
  "strategy": {
    "public_page": "https://www.turbinefi.com/backtest/btc-15-minute-series-one-entry-per-window-d72192b47b7f",
    "strategy_id": "d72192b47b7fda6cc300b39f167f7b86",
    "source": "https://www.turbinefi.com/docs/strategy-reference/kalshi/examples#rolling-15-minute-crypto-series",
    "dsl": "version: 1\nplatform: kalshi\nstrategy: custom\nstrategy_name: BTC 15-minute series, one entry per window\nmarket:\n    series_ticker: KXBTC15M\nrisk:\n    max_position: 2\n    price_floor: 0.10\n    price_ceiling: 0.90\n    max_entries_per_market: 1\n    max_loss: 5.00\nloop:\n    interval: 10\nrules:\n    - name: flatten_before_close\n      when:\n        all:\n            - {field: position_size, op: \">\", value: 0}\n            - {field: time_to_expiry, op: \"<=\", value: \"2m\"}\n      action: sell_all\n    - name: take_profit\n      when:\n        all:\n            - {field: yes_position_size, op: \">\", value: 0}\n            - {field: yes_best_bid, op: \">=\", value: 0.75}\n      action: sell_yes\n    - name: enter_cheap_yes\n      when:\n        all:\n            - {field: position_size, op: \"==\", value: 0}\n            - {field: time_to_expiry, op: \">\", value: \"8m\"}\n            - {field: yes_best_ask, op: \"<=\", value: 0.35}\n      action: buy_yes\n      size: 2\nstrategy_name_origin: user\n"
  },
  "run": {
    "backtest_result_id": "915dc99858c87d19a20e1086beaf5d3e3666128bf1c4c31c6f6b1b326502ad90",
    "engine": "v3",
    "period_days": 30,
    "requested_start": "2026-09-19T01:00:00Z",
    "requested_end": "2026-10-19T01:00:00Z",
    "actual_start": "2026-09-19T01:00:00Z",
    "actual_end": "2026-10-19T00:59:59.97Z",
    "coverage_status": "partial",
    "data_source": "turbine_derived",
    "data_granularity": "kalshi_l2_orderbook_replay",
    "evaluation_cadence_seconds": 10,
    "market_selection": "most_liquid",
    "events_in_window": 6399,
    "markets_simulated": 2733,
    "events_skipped": 3666,
    "skipped_event_sample": [
      "KXBTC15M-26OCT172000-00: beyond_settlement_frontier",
      "KXBTC15M-26OCT172015-15: beyond_settlement_frontier",
      "KXBTC15M-26OCT172030-30: beyond_settlement_frontier"
    ],
    "fill_model": "next_event_executable_quote",
    "execution_model": "persistent_execution_events_v2",
    "fee_model_version": "kalshi_2026_02_05_with_cent_alignment_capped_rebate_v2",
    "settlement_model_version": "settlement_aware_binary_payout_v2"
  },
  "summary": {
    "total_trades": 2456,
    "winning_trades": 406,
    "losing_trades": 822,
    "win_rate": 0.3306188925081433,
    "gross_pnl": -64.87,
    "total_fees": 61.51,
    "net_pnl": -126.38,
    "max_drawdown": -130,
    "max_exposure": 0.7,
    "fill_ratio": 1,
    "maker_fill_rate": 0,
    "sharpe_ratio": -1.3,
    "start_time": "2026-09-19T01:00:00Z",
    "end_time": "2026-10-19T00:59:50Z"
  },
  "files": {
    "order_log_csv": "/evidence/kalshi-btc15m-docs-example-backtest-2026-10-19-order-log.csv",
    "order_log_note": "Snapshot of the public order-lifecycle log: 10000 of 14408 events are stored (through 2026-10-08 17:13 UTC). Rows are order events, not round-trip trades.",
    "live_order_log_api": "https://api.turbinefi.com/api/v1/strategies/d72192b47b7fda6cc300b39f167f7b86/order-logs?result=915dc99858c87d19a20e1086beaf5d3e3666128bf1c4c31c6f6b1b326502ad90&offset=0&format=csv"
  },
  "limits": [
    "Coverage is partial: 2,733 of 6,399 listed events in the window were simulated; the sampled skip reason is beyond_settlement_frontier.",
    "Fills are simulated against the next executable recorded quote; there is no real queue position, latency or market impact.",
    "risk.max_loss is evaluated per market in this replay. A live deployment applies max_loss: 5.00 across the whole deployment and would have halted far earlier.",
    "One 30-day window of one documented example. It is not a recommended strategy and does not predict future results."
  ]
}