This bot buys into extreme price moves (under $0.15 or over $0.85) expecting the market to revert toward the midpoint before settlement.
Kalshi·Apr 23 to Apr 24·Created 1h ago
Total PnL
-$10
Simulated P&L
Sharpe
-13.40
Risk-adjusted return
Win rate
8.1%
74 trades
Max drawdown
-$18
Peak to trough
A few notes on these numbers
Methodology
Backtests replay a 30-day window of Kalshi 1-minute OHLC candles, evaluating strategy rules once per minute. Signals from one candle can fill no earlier than the next tradable candle. Taker fills use top-of-book bid/ask prices and Kalshi-style fees; partial fills, queue position, and full depth replay are not modeled yet. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital
Kalshi strategies size positions directly in contracts, so ROI as a percentage of capital is not defined on the backtest summary. That's why P&L is shown in dollars rather than a percentage.
Past performance
Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice
Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.