UFC Conservative Market Making

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology

Backtests replay a 30-day window of Kalshi 1-minute OHLC candles, evaluating strategy rules once per minute. Signals from one candle can fill no earlier than the next tradable candle. Taker fills use top-of-book bid/ask prices and Kalshi-style fees; partial fills, queue position, and full depth replay are not modeled yet. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.

Starting capital

Kalshi strategies size positions directly in contracts, so ROI as a percentage of capital is not defined on the backtest summary. That's why P&L is shown in dollars rather than a percentage.

Past performance

Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Not financial advice

Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.