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Full-Size Timeframe Confluence

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On Kalshi's 15-minute XRP market, this strategy checks every 10 seconds and trades at most 30 contracts. It buys 30 YES contracts when the price is between 0.90 and 0.97, the spread is 0.03 or less, 30 to 210 seconds remain, and XRP has risen over the past 1 hour, 15 minutes, 5 minutes, and 1 minute; it buys 30 NO contracts in the mirror case where all four of those changes are negative. It exits any held position if the price or best bid crosses 0.65, if the price or best bid reaches 0.99 (0.01 for NO), if unrealized loss hits 15, or it cancels everything when time to expiry reaches zero.

Kalshi·Aug 11 to Sep 10·Created 7d ago

Net P&L

+$58

Return +194.7% on risk capital

Sharpe

0.88

Return Sharpe

Win rate

100.0%

58 trades

Max drawdown

-$1

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.