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Late Momentum Confirmation Entry

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This Kalshi strategy trades the KXNEAR15M series, checking conditions every 10 seconds with a maximum position of 3 contracts. It holds no position until, with 30 to 210 seconds left before expiry, the spread is at most 0.03 and the price sits between 0.84 and 0.97, while NEAR's 1-hour, 15-minute, and 5-minute changes and 1-minute velocity all point the same direction, then it buys 3 YES or 3 NO accordingly. Once holding, it sells on price, bid, or unrealized loss thresholds; at expiry it cancels everything.

Kalshi·Aug 10 to Sep 9·Created 9d ago
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Net P&L
-$1
Return -49.3% on risk capital
Sharpe
-0.08
Return Sharpe
Win rate
87.5%
32 trades
Max drawdown
-$3
Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology
Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital
Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance
Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice
Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.