BTC 15M Price Bands

Starter is $29/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M markets, choosing the most liquid one, and re-checks conditions every 30 seconds. Rules run top to bottom and the first match ends that tick. Rule 1 sells all positions if unrealized profit/loss is at or below -25. Rule 2 buys 50 YES contracts only when there is no position or open order, fewer than 3 portfolio positions, expiry is between 120 and 300 seconds away, the YES ask is between 0.35 and 0.8, the spread is 0.03 or less, Bitcoin's 5-minute change is at least 0.0005, its 1-minute velocity is above zero, and Ethereum's 5-minute change is at least -0.0005. Rule 3 buys 50 NO contracts under the mirror conditions: the NO ask between 0.35 and 0.8, Bitcoin's 5-minute change at or below -0.0005, its 1-minute velocity below zero, and Ethereum's 5-minute change at or below 0.0005. Entries are capped at one per market and $50 notional per market, with a 50-contract position limit and a $25 loss threshold that can halt and liquidate only this strategy's Kalshi inventory.

Kalshi·Oct 3 to Nov 2 UTC·Created 23h ago

Net P&L

+$1,677

Return +3353.0% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

1.04

Return Sharpe

Win rate

65.8%

579 trades

Max drawdown

-$117

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.