BTC 15M Price Bands

Starter is $29/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets (series KXBTC15M), picking the most liquid market, and re-checks conditions every 30 seconds. Rules run in order and the first match ends that tick. Rule 1 sells all when unrealized profit/loss is at or below -25. Rule 2 buys 50 YES only when there is no position and no working order, the portfolio holds fewer than 3 positions, expiry is between 120 and 300 seconds away, the YES ask is between 0.35 and 0.80 with a spread of 0.03 or less, Bitcoin's 5-minute change is at least 0.0005 with positive 1-minute velocity, and Ethereum's 5-minute change is at least -0.0005. Rule 3 buys 50 NO under the mirror conditions: no position or order, fewer than 3 portfolio positions, expiry 120-300 seconds, NO ask 0.35-0.80, spread 0.03 or less, Bitcoin's 5-minute change at or below -0.0005 with negative velocity, and Ethereum's 5-minute change at or below 0.0005. Position size is capped at 50 contracts, one entry per market, 50 dollars of entry spend per market (not released by later sells), and a 25 dollar loss stop that liquidates only this strategy's attributed Kalshi inventory.

Kalshi·Oct 3 to Nov 2 UTC·Created 23h ago

Net P&L

+$1,803

Return +2209.7% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

1.34

Return Sharpe

Win rate

70.3%

719 trades

Max drawdown

-$133

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.