BTC 15M Price Bands

Starter is $29/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades Kalshi's most liquid BTC 15-minute market (series KXBTC15M), checking conditions every 30 seconds and applying rules top-to-bottom so only the first match acts. Rule 1 sells the entire position when unrealized P&L is at or below -25. Rule 2 buys 50 YES contracts only when there is no position and no open order, fewer than 3 portfolio positions, expiry is between 120 and 300 seconds away, the YES best ask is between 0.35 and 0.80, the spread is at most 0.03, BTC's 5-minute change is at least 0.0005 with positive 1-minute velocity, and ETH's 5-minute change is at least -0.0005. Rule 3 mirrors this for 50 NO contracts, requiring the NO best ask between 0.35 and 0.80, BTC's 5-minute change at or below -0.0005 with negative 1-minute velocity, and ETH's 5-minute change at or below 0.0005. Position size is capped at 50 contracts, one entry per market, $50 notional per market, 3 total portfolio positions, and a $25 max loss that liquidates only this strategy's attributed inventory.

Kalshi·Oct 3 to Nov 2 UTC·Created 23h ago

Net P&L

+$1,795

Return +2200.3% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

1.27

Return Sharpe

Win rate

72.7%

911 trades

Max drawdown

-$130

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.