BTC 15M Price Bands

Starter is $29/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This Kalshi strategy trades the most liquid KXBTC15M market, evaluating every 30 seconds and checking custom rules top to bottom, with the first match ending that tick. Rule 1 sells all positions when unrealized P&L is at or below -25. Rule 2 buys 50 YES contracts only when there is no existing position or order, total portfolio positions are under 3, time to expiry is between 120 and 300 seconds, the YES best ask is between 0.35 and 0.80, spread is at most 0.03, BTC change over 5 minutes is at least 0.0005, BTC 1-minute velocity is above 0, and ETH 5-minute change is at least -0.0005. Rule 3 buys 50 NO contracts under the same position, count, expiry, price, and spread conditions, but requires the NO best ask in that range, BTC 5-minute change at or below -0.0005, BTC velocity below 0, and ETH 5-minute change at or below 0.0005. Position size is limited to 50 contracts, entries to one per market, and spend to $50 per market.

Kalshi·Oct 3 to Nov 2 UTC·Created 23h ago

Net P&L

+$1,648

Return +3296.6% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

1.04

Return Sharpe

Win rate

66.8%

549 trades

Max drawdown

-$117

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.