BTC 15M Price Bands

Starter is $29/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, selecting the most liquid market, and re-evaluates every 30 seconds, with custom rules checked in order and the first match ending that tick. Rule 1 fires when unrealized profit and loss is at or below -25 and sells all. Rule 2 buys 50 YES contracts when position size and order count are both zero, fewer than three portfolio positions are held, time to expiry is between 120 and 300 seconds, the YES best ask is between 0.35 and 0.80, the spread is at most 0.03, Bitcoin's five-minute change is at least 0.0005, Bitcoin's one-minute velocity is above zero, and Ethereum's five-minute change is at least -0.0005. Rule 3 buys 50 NO contracts under the same position, count, timing, spread, and ask-band conditions, but requires Bitcoin's five-minute change at or below -0.0005, Bitcoin velocity below zero, and Ethereum's five-minute change at or above 0.0005. Position size is capped at 50 contracts, entries at one per market, notional spend at 50 dollars per market, and portfolio positions at three, with a -25 max-loss halt that liquidates only this strategy's attributed Kalshi inventory.

Kalshi·Oct 3 to Nov 2 UTC·Created 2d ago

Net P&L

+$1,799

Return +2204.8% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

1.33

Return Sharpe

Win rate

70.1%

609 trades

Max drawdown

-$115

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.