BTC 15M Price Bands

Starter is $29/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades the most liquid Kalshi BTC 15-minute market and evaluates every 30 seconds. Its rules run top to bottom and the first match fires and ends that tick. Rule 1 sells all when unrealized profit and loss is at or below -25. Rule 2 buys 50 YES contracts only when position size and open order count are both zero, fewer than 3 portfolio positions are held, time to expiry is between 120 and 300 seconds, the YES best ask is between 0.35 and 0.80, the spread is at most 0.03, Bitcoin's 5-minute change is at least 0.0005, Bitcoin's 1-minute velocity is above zero, and Ethereum's 5-minute change is at least -0.0005. Rule 3 mirrors this for 50 NO contracts, requiring the NO best ask between 0.35 and 0.80, Bitcoin's 5-minute change at or below -0.0005, velocity below zero, and Ethereum's 5-minute change at or below 0.0005. Entries are capped at one per market and $50 of spend per market; spent budget is not released by later sells, and a $25 max loss can halt and liquidate only this strategy's attributed Kalshi inventory. Positions are limited to 50 contracts, with YES price bounds of 0.36 to 0.62, and other runtime checks may block orders.

Kalshi·Oct 3 to Nov 2 UTC·Created 23h ago

Net P&L

+$1,727

Return +3454.0% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

0.93

Return Sharpe

Win rate

64.3%

615 trades

Max drawdown

-$144

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.