Odds-Scaled Trend Alignment

Starter is $9/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades Kalshi's BTC 15-minute markets, checking conditions every 30 seconds. It buys YES when Bitcoin's 5-minute and 1-hour changes are both positive, or buys NO when both are negative, as long as the ask price is between 0.15 and 0.50, the spread is 0.03 or less, and more than 2 minutes remain; smaller position sizes (1 to 3 contracts) apply at higher ask prices. It exits by selling everything if an open position's unrealized loss exceeds 0.75, with total position capped at 20 contracts.

Kalshi·Jul 26 to Aug 23 UTC·Created 1mo ago

Net P&L

+$162

Return +810.9% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

0.41

Return Sharpe

Win rate

38.3%

4088 trades

Max drawdown

-$46

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.