BTC Ladder Bands

Starter is $49/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M series (most liquid market), this strategy evaluates every 10 seconds, capped at 50 contracts total with YES prices between 0.05 and 0.99. Rules run top to bottom, first match ends the tick. Rules 1 and 2 sell an existing YES or NO position when that side's best bid falls to 0.35 or below. Rules 3 and 4 sell an existing YES position when spot is below strike, or an existing NO position when spot is above strike. Rules 5 and 6 sell an existing side when time to expiry is 15 minutes or less but more than 2 minutes and that side's best bid is at least 0.995. Rules 7 through 18 buy YES or NO, 50 contracts, only with no open orders and position under 50, when BTC price is positive, the side's ask sits between 0.88 and 0.99, spread is 0.03 or less, and momentum agrees: spot at least a set distance beyond strike (100, 85, 70, 46.7, 35, 23.3), EMA on the right side, 5-minute change and 1-minute velocity aligned, at entry windows of 8, 5, 4, 2, 1 minute, and 30 seconds. Rules 19 and 20 buy at 25 seconds or less using only spread and ask bounds. Entry orders are immediate-or-cancel.

Kalshi·Sep 16 to Oct 15 UTC·Created 11d ago

Net P&L

+$213

Return +425.7% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

0.41

Return Sharpe

Win rate

92.9%

582 trades

Max drawdown

-$118

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.