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BTC Late Conviction

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M bitcoin market, checking conditions every 10 seconds. It buys 40 contracts of YES when, with 60 to 180 seconds left, the spread is at most 0.02 and bitcoin is up over both 5 and 15 minutes while the YES ask sits between 0.80 and 0.95; it buys 40 NO on the mirror-image bearish setup. All resting orders are cancelled once expiry arrives, entries are capped at 1 per market, and positions are limited to 200 contracts.

Kalshi·Aug 6 to Sep 5·Created 13d ago

Net P&L

+$38

Return +19.1% on risk capital

Sharpe

0.19

Return Sharpe

Win rate

94.4%

37 trades

Max drawdown

-$35

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.