TurbineMangrove
POWERED BY TURBINEFI
All StrategiesResearchCommunity
Pricing
Kalshi TradingPolymarketAI Strategy BuilderBacktesting EngineSandbox RuntimeEdge Data FeedsStrategy LibraryBacktested StrategiesLive Performance
BlogXDiscord
AffiliatesMerchDocs
Pricing
← Strategies
← Strategies

BTC Late Conviction

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

On Kalshi's BTC 15-minute markets, this strategy checks every 10 seconds and buys 40 contracts of YES only when 60 to 180 seconds remain, the spread is 0.02 or less, Bitcoin rose at least 0.08% over 5 minutes and 0.15% over 15 minutes, and the YES ask is between 0.80 and 0.95. It buys 40 NO contracts on the mirror-image condition with Bitcoin falling by those amounts and the NO ask in that same price band. Position limit is 200 contracts, one entry per market, and any remaining orders are canceled once expiry is reached.

Kalshi·Aug 6 to Sep 5·Created 13d ago
Share to XShare to Reddit
Turbine Studio

Your next trade is a sentence away.

Describe an idea, review the backtest, and start from the same workspace.

Build a bot
Net P&L
+$38
Return +19.1% on risk capital
Sharpe
0.19
Return Sharpe
Win rate
94.4%
37 trades
Max drawdown
-$35
Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology
Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital
Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance
Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice
Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.