MACD Thresholds

Starter is $9/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M bitcoin market, checking every 30 seconds. It first exits everything if unrealized loss reaches 25, then buys 2 YES contracts when the 1-minute MACD is above its signal line with both 1-minute and 5-minute histograms above 10, or buys 2 NO contracts when the opposite holds, in each case requiring an empty position, fewer than 3 portfolio positions, spread at or under 0.03, 180 to 600 seconds to expiry, and an ask price between 0.35 and 0.65. Position size is capped at 50 contracts and one entry per market.

Kalshi·Aug 23 to Sep 21 UTC·Created 12d ago

Net P&L

+$46

Return +92.0% on risk capital

Sharpe

0.64

Return Sharpe

Win rate

71.1%

256 trades

Max drawdown

-$7

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.