MACD Thresholds

Starter is $9/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades Kalshi's BTC 15-minute markets, checking every 30 seconds. It buys 2 YES contracts when BTC's 1-minute MACD sits above its signal line with a histogram above 2.5 and the 5-minute histogram positive, or 2 NO contracts on the mirror-image bearish setup, only when no position exists, fewer than 3 markets are open, the spread is 0.03 or less, expiry is 180 to 600 seconds away, and the ask is between 0.35 and 0.65. It sells everything if unrealized loss on all positions reaches 25, caps total position at 50 contracts, and allows one entry per market.

Kalshi·Aug 23 to Sep 21 UTC·Created 12d ago

Net P&L

+$75

Return +150.8% on risk capital

Sharpe

0.65

Return Sharpe

Win rate

57.8%

1138 trades

Max drawdown

-$12

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.