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BTC Momentum Continuation

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This trades Kalshi KXBTC15M markets and checks every 10 seconds. It sells everything if unrealized loss reaches 11 or gain reaches 4.4; otherwise, only with no position and a spread of 0.03 or less, it buys 50 YES when BTC is rising above its 20-minute average and 1-hour VWAP with 1 to 7 minutes left, or 50 NO when the same signals point down. Position size is capped at 150 contracts, with YES prices between 0.45 and 0.55.

Kalshi·Aug 8 to Sep 7·Created 10d ago
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Net P&L
+$1,132
Return +754.5% on risk capital
Sharpe
0.63
Return Sharpe
Win rate
61.0%
503 trades
Max drawdown
-$198
Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology
Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital
Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance
Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice
Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.