BTC RSI Strength Price Sensitivity

Starter is $29/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This Kalshi strategy trades the most liquid KXBTC15M market, checking every 30 seconds and using closed-candle Bitcoin RSI from Coinbase. Rules fire top to bottom, first match only. Rule 1 sells everything if unrealized P&L is at or below -25. Rule 2 sells any YES position when 1-minute RSI is below 50; Rule 3 sells any NO position when 1-minute RSI is above 50. Rule 4 buys YES at size 10 only when flat with no orders, fewer than 3 portfolio positions, expiry between 180 and 600 seconds, spread at or under 0.03, YES ask between 0.30 and 0.70, 1-minute RSI crossing above 60, and 5-minute RSI above 50. Rule 5 mirrors this for NO: NO ask between 0.30 and 0.70, 1-minute RSI crossing below 40, and 5-minute RSI below 50. Position cap is 10 contracts, entries are limited to one per market and $10 notional per market, and the $25 max loss halts and liquidates only this strategy's Kalshi inventory.

Kalshi·Oct 6 to Nov 5 UTC·Created 1d ago

Net P&L

+$138

Return +901.4% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

0.58

Return Sharpe

Win rate

59.0%

453 trades

Max drawdown

-$29

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.