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BTC Trend Confirmation

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades the most liquid Kalshi KXBTC15M Bitcoin market, checking conditions every 30 seconds against Coinbase BTC-USD price changes over 5 minutes and 1 hour. It exits all positions if unrealized loss reaches $25 or if 2 minutes or less remain to expiry; otherwise it buys one YES contract when both changes are positive and price is between 0.35 and 0.65 with spread at or below 0.03, or one NO contract when both changes are negative and price equals 0.65 with the same spread. Position size is capped at 100 contracts, with prices limited to 0.28-0.72.

Kalshi·Jul 30 to Aug 29·Created 20d ago

Net P&L

-$28

Return -27.5% on risk capital

Sharpe

-0.16

Return Sharpe

Win rate

50.3%

4126 trades

Max drawdown

-$41

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.