Strike Distance

Starter is $49/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This Kalshi strategy trades the most liquid KXBTC15M market, checking conditions every 10 seconds with Bitcoin price data from Coinbase refreshed every 5 seconds. Rules run top to bottom and the first match fires. Rule 1 sells YES when a YES position exists and spot is below the strike. Rule 2 sells NO when a NO position exists and spot is above the strike. Rule 3 buys 50 YES contracts only when there is no position and no open order, price is above zero, expiry is within 5 minutes, spot is at least 130 above the strike, price exceeds the 1-hour VWAP, the 5-minute change is positive, 1-minute velocity is at or above zero, the YES ask is between 0.45 and 0.99, and the spread is at most 0.02. Rule 4 buys 50 NO contracts under the mirrored conditions: spot at least 130 below the strike, price under the VWAP, negative 5-minute change, velocity at or below zero, and the NO ask between 0.45 and 0.99 with spread at most 0.02. Entries are immediate-or-cancel and capped at one per market, so partial fills can use up that allowance; a $250 max loss can halt and liquidate only this strategy's Kalshi inventory.

Kalshi·Sep 23 to Oct 23 UTC·Created 5d ago

Net P&L

+$1,409

Return +2817.7% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

1.13

Return Sharpe

Win rate

94.7%

300 trades

Max drawdown

-$47

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.