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Discounted No Convergence

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On Kalshi's KXRAIN market it checks every 60 seconds and can hold at most 1 contract. Rule 1 sells the entire position once the NO best bid reaches 0.97 or higher. Rule 2, only when flat, buys 1 NO contract if the NO best ask is above 0 and at most 0.50, both sides have bids, the YES ask is below 1, the spread is at most 0.05, and expiry is more than 1 hour but at most 24 hours away.

Kalshi·Aug 17 to Aug 27·Created 21d ago
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Net P&L
+$1
Return +75.0% on risk capital
Sharpe
-0.19
Return Sharpe
Win rate
39.2%
112 trades
Max drawdown
-$4
Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology
Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital
Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance
Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice
Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.