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Chicago Heat Momentum

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

On Kalshi Chicago high-temperature markets, it checks every 60 seconds and cancels all orders if the temperature is 71F or below, data is over 15 minutes old, price is outside 0.15 to 0.5, spread is under 0.02, or expiry is within 45 minutes. Otherwise, with no open position, it buys 40 YES contracts at the best bid plus 0.01. It sells everything if the next-hour forecast tops 72F with price above 0.66, near expiry, or unrealized loss exceeds 3.

Kalshi·Jul 26 to Aug 22·Created 27d ago
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Describe an idea, review the backtest, and start from the same workspace.

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Net P&L
+$51
Return +50.9% on risk capital
Sharpe
0.31
Return Sharpe
Win rate
54.5%
30 trades
Max drawdown
-$20
Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology
Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital
Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance
Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice
Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.