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VWAP Momentum

Starter is $9/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M Bitcoin market, checking conditions every 30 seconds. It buys one YES contract when Coinbase BTC price is above its one-hour VWAP and up over the last five minutes, or one NO contract when price is below VWAP and down over five minutes, in both cases only if the market price is between 0.25 and 0.75, the spread is at most 0.03, and more than two minutes remain. It sells everything if unrealized loss exceeds 25 or expiry is within two minutes, and holds at most 50 contracts.

Kalshi·Jul 26 to Aug 22 UTC·Created 1mo ago

Net P&L

-$13

Return -26.8% on risk capital

Sharpe

-0.21

Return Sharpe

Win rate

54.5%

1354 trades

Max drawdown

-$23

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.