BTC EMA/SMA Crossover

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades the 15-minute Bitcoin prediction market on Kalshi, checking conditions every 45 seconds. It buys 5 "yes" contracts when the 1-minute 12-period EMA is above the 20-period SMA, or 5 "no" when the opposite, provided no position exists, more than 5 minutes remain, the spread is under 0.03, and the contract price is between 15 and 90 cents. Exits occur on a moving average crossover, when time falls below 2 minutes, or if unrealized loss reaches -5.

Kalshi·Jun 3 to Jun 11·Created 27d ago

Net P&L

-$145

Return -2902.8% on risk capital

Sharpe

-1.70

Return Sharpe

Win rate

3.6%

1098 trades

Max drawdown

-$146

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.

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