BTC VWAP Directional

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

The strategy trades the KXBTC15M market every 60 seconds. It buys up to 5 Yes contracts when Bitcoin price is above its 1-hour average and the 5-minute change is positive with a spread under 0.03, or buys No under opposite conditions; it flips positions when those conditions reverse and exits completely if unrealized loss hits $5. Total position is limited to 25 contracts, with order boundaries between 15 and 70 cents.

Kalshi·May 10 to Jun 9·Created 1mo ago

Net P&L

+$2,371

Return +9482.3% on risk capital

Sharpe

1.29

Return Sharpe

Win rate

50.2%

11628 trades

Max drawdown

-$113

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.

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