BTC MA Crossover

This strategy trades the Kalshi market KXBTC15M. It checks conditions every 45 seconds, using a fast and a slow moving average of Bitcoin’s price from Coinbase. It buys a yes contract when the fast average crosses above the slow average and the bid‑ask spread is below 3 cents, and buys a no contract on the opposite cross; each entry order is for 10 contracts but total positions are limited to 5 contracts. All positions are sold when the unrealized profit or loss reaches $1.

Kalshi·Jun 5 to Jun 11 UTC·Created 3mo ago

Studio import unavailable

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Net P&L

-$5

Return -98.0% on risk capital

Sharpe

-0.04

Return Sharpe

Win rate

41.5%

284 trades

Max drawdown

-$31

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.