BTC VWAP Directional

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades the KXBTC15M market on Kalshi every 45 seconds. It buys 'yes' if Bitcoin price above 1-hour VWAP and 5-minute change positive with spread under 0.03, and 'no' if opposite; it flips sides or exits entirely when conditions reverse or unrealized loss reaches -5. Each entry uses 5 contracts, maximum 25.

Kalshi·May 10 to Jun 9·Created 1mo ago

Net P&L

+$2,372

Return +9488.2% on risk capital

Sharpe

1.29

Return Sharpe

Win rate

50.3%

11630 trades

Max drawdown

-$113

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.

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