Kalshi variant 017 led the family with -84.40% ROI. The weakest completed varian

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It trades 15-minute Bitcoin prediction contracts on Kalshi, evaluating every 30 seconds. It buys ‘yes’ when Bitcoin’s price is above its 24-hour average but below its 1-hour average, with a recent rise and faster moving average above slower, and contract price between 15 and 75 cents; buys ‘no’ on the opposite. Exits occur upon a $5 profit, $8 loss, or less than two minutes to expiry, with each trade limited to 5 contracts and total position 25.

Kalshi·May 20 to Jun 11·Created 1mo ago

Net P&L

-$21

Return -84.4% on risk capital

Sharpe

-0.48

Return Sharpe

Win rate

10.6%

238 trades

Max drawdown

-$25

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.

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