BTC 15m Price Momentum

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This strategy trades the KXBTC15M market on Kalshi every 10 seconds. It buys "yes" when the contract price is 0.50 or below, the 12-period EMA of Bitcoin is above its 20-period SMA, and BTC price is above a 50-period SMA, with more than 2 minutes left; it buys "no" when the price is 0.50 or above and the inverse trend conditions hold. Position size is capped at 5 contracts, and all positions are exited if the price drops to 0.10 with under a minute remaining or at 5 seconds before expiry.

Kalshi·May 14 to Jun 11·Created 4d ago

Net P&L

+$275

Return +5508.8% on risk capital

Sharpe

0.92

Return Sharpe

Win rate

58.4%

1442 trades

Max drawdown

-$26

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.

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