BTC Regime Fade

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades the KXBTC15M market on Kalshi, checking every 60 seconds. It enters by buying Yes when the price is below 35 cents and No when above 65 cents, only if Bitcoin’s 5-minute and 15-minute changes match specific calm, moderate, or divergence patterns. Position size is capped at 5 contracts. Exits are triggered by price crossing 50 cents, opposing Bitcoin moves, a $5 loss, or 2 minutes before expiry.

Kalshi·May 13 to Jun 12·Created 1mo ago

Net P&L

-$358

Return -7158.6% on risk capital

Sharpe

-0.87

Return Sharpe

Win rate

48.9%

9608 trades

Max drawdown

-$379

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.

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