BTC 15m Price Momentum

7-day free trial, 10 free deploys, then plan limits apply.

This strategy trades the KXBTC15M market on Kalshi, evaluating every 10 minutes. It enters, only when holding no position, by buying 5 yes contracts when the price is at or below 50 cents and Bitcoin's short-term trends are upward, or buys 5 no contracts when the price is at least 50 cents and trends are downward. It exits all contracts if the price drops to 10 cents or less with one minute left, or automatically sells everything with 5 seconds remaining.

Kalshi·May 14 to Jun 11·Created 4d ago

Net P&L

+$447

Return +8936.8% on risk capital

Sharpe

1.21

Return Sharpe

Win rate

57.7%

1796 trades

Max drawdown

-$26

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.

← Strategies