BTC Regime Fade

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades the Kalshi Bitcoin 15-minute market (KXBTC15M), checking conditions every 30 seconds. It buys 'Yes' when the contract price is below 35¢ and Bitcoin's 5- and 15-minute changes meet calm, moderate, or divergence thresholds; it buys 'No' when price is above 65¢ and similar changes occur. Each entry buys 5 contracts, up to a 25-contract maximum, and it exits all positions when price crosses 50¢ in favor, when Bitcoin moves sharply against it, at a $5 loss, or within 2 minutes of expiry.

Kalshi·May 13 to Jun 12·Created 1mo ago

Net P&L

-$1,377

Return -5507.8% on risk capital

Sharpe

-1.43

Return Sharpe

Win rate

50.4%

14369 trades

Max drawdown

-$1,440

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.

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