BTC Momentum Entry

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades the Kalshi KXBTC15M market every 15 seconds. It buys "yes" when the contract price is at least 80 cents and Bitcoin's 1-hour gain is 0.5% or more near expiry, and buys "no" when the price is at most 20 cents and Bitcoin's 1-hour loss is 0.5% or more, both with a tight spread and within the last 4–5 minutes. Positions are limited to 5 contracts and are fully sold if the unrealized loss reaches $3 or 30 seconds before settlement.

Kalshi·Jun 3 to Jun 11·Created 27d ago

Net P&L

+$1

Return +26.8% on risk capital

Sharpe

0.33

Return Sharpe

Win rate

66.7%

6 trades

Max drawdown

-$0

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.

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