BTC Leads ETH

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Trades the KXETH15M market every 60 seconds. It buys yes with 5 contracts when BTC 1‑minute velocity is ≥4.5 and BTC price is above its 1‑hour VWAP, or buys no with 5 contracts when velocity is ≤‑4.5 and price is below VWAP, provided time to expiry exceeds 7 minutes and the spread is under 0.03. All positions are sold if ETH’s 5‑minute change exceeds ±0.3%, time to expiry falls to 2 minutes or less, or unrealized loss reaches $5; the maximum total position is 5 contracts.

Kalshi·Jun 2 to Jun 11·Created 28d ago

Net P&L

-$1

Return -11.2% on risk capital

Sharpe

-0.53

Return Sharpe

Win rate

0.0%

4 trades

Max drawdown

-$1

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.

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