Research 8a7ed389b21c

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This strategy monitors the KXHIGHCHI market every 30 minutes. It buys yes if current Chicago temperature is within 2.5°F of the forecast high, the 3-hour forecast is not lower, and wind is light, while the contract price is below $0.70; it buys no if the temperature lags the forecast high by 7°F or more and no rise is expected, when price is above $0.30. It exits positions on a $4 profit, $5 loss, or within 30 minutes of expiry, and limits total exposure to 5 contracts.

Kalshi·May 26 to Jun 10·Created 1mo ago

Net P&L

-$1

Return -27.8% on risk capital

Sharpe

-0.32

Return Sharpe

Win rate

50.0%

11 trades

Max drawdown

-$2

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.

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