Research e7bbffb78e7d

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This strategy trades the Kalshi market KXHIGHMIA every 15 minutes. It buys Yes contracts when Miami weather conditions (temperature near forecast high, rising, humid, high dew point, recent observations) suggest heat persistence, with smaller entry at price ≤0.60 and larger entry at ≤0.70, provided expiry is at least 2 hours away. Positions are sold entirely when profit reaches $4, loss reaches -$6, observations become stale (over 2 hours old), or time to expiry falls to 30 minutes or less.

Kalshi·May 27 to Jun 10·Created 1mo ago

Net P&L

-$3

Return -30.6% on risk capital

Sharpe

-0.50

Return Sharpe

Win rate

0.0%

24 trades

Max drawdown

-$4

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.

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