Kalshi variant 005 led the family with 2.90% ROI. The weakest completed variant

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades the KXHIGHNY market for New York City’s high temperature. It evaluates every 15 minutes, buying Yes contracts (size 3) when current temperature is within 2.5°F of the forecast high, wind is low, and price is at or below $0.70; it buys No contracts (size 3) when temperature lags forecast by 7°F or more and price is at least $0.30. Positions are exited entirely if unrealized profit reaches $4, loss hits $5, or less than 30 minutes remain until expiry. Each entry is limited to 3 contracts, with a total cap of 15 contracts.

Kalshi·May 21 to Jun 10·Created 1mo ago

Net P&L

-$3

Return -18.5% on risk capital

Sharpe

-0.14

Return Sharpe

Win rate

16.7%

36 trades

Max drawdown

-$7

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.

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