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EMA Breakdown NO Entry

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

On Kalshi's 15-minute DOGE market, this strategy checks every 10 seconds and follows two rules in order. It sells any existing NO position if the NO best bid falls to 0.25 or below, and otherwise buys 15 NO contracts when the market is within 5 minutes of expiry, the NO best ask is at least 0.70, Coinbase DOGE price is below its 12-period one-minute EMA, and no position is held. Positions are capped at 15 contracts with at most one entry per market.

Kalshi·Aug 23 to Sep 21 UTC·Created 3d ago
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Net P&L
+$98
Return +653.9% on risk capital
Sharpe
0.08
Return Sharpe
Win rate
75.8%
1536 trades
Max drawdown
-$239
Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology
Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital
Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance
Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice
Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.