Entry Rung Test

Starter is $49/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

On Kalshi's most-liquid KXBTC15M market, this strategy evaluates every 10 seconds using Coinbase BTC-USD price, 5-minute change, 1-minute velocity, and a 26-period EMA, comparing spot and EMA to the strike as signed distances. The first matching rule each tick fires and ends that tick. It exits a held YES position if the YES bid is at or below 0.35, if spot is below strike, or if 15 minutes or less but more than 2 minutes remain and the YES bid is at least 0.995; it exits a held NO position on the mirrored conditions (NO bid at or below 0.35, spot above strike, or NO bid at least 0.995 inside that same expiry window). Entries require no working orders, position size under 5, a positive BTC price, spread at or below 0.02 (or 0.03 in the final rung), and an ask between 0.9 and 0.99, buying 5 contracts. Six rungs tighten the strike-distance threshold as expiry nears: at least 45 with 4 minutes left, 30 with 2 minutes, 22.5 with 1 minute, 15 with 30 seconds, then a final rung at 25 seconds requiring no BTC filters. Mirror NO entries use the negative thresholds. Position limit is 5 contracts.

Kalshi·Sep 15 to Oct 15 UTC·Created 12d ago

Net P&L

+$16

Return +320.6% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

0.22

Return Sharpe

Win rate

94.4%

436 trades

Max drawdown

-$14

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.