Even-Odds Midpoint Reversion

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On Kalshi's KXBTC15M market it checks the YES price every 10 seconds. When flat and at least 60 seconds have passed since the last entry, it buys YES if the price is above 0.05 and at or below 0.15, or buys NO if the price is at or above 0.85 and below 0.95; nothing happens in between. With a position, it exits when the YES price comes within 0.02 of 0.5, and it holds at most 1 contract.

Kalshi·Jul 26 to Aug 23 UTC·Created 2mo ago

Net P&L

-$41

Return -4099.0% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

-0.73

Return Sharpe

Win rate

12.8%

2760 trades

Max drawdown

-$43

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.