Level 5 at 90

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This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M Bitcoin market, choosing the most liquid contract, and re-checks conditions every 10 seconds. Position size is capped at 5 contracts, with YES prices allowed between 0.05 and 0.99. Rules run top to bottom and the first match ends that tick. Rules 1 and 2 sell an existing YES or NO position if its best bid falls to 0.35 or below. Rules 3 and 4 sell a YES position when spot is below strike, or a NO position when spot is above strike. Rules 5 and 6 sell a YES or NO position between 15 and 2 minutes to expiry if its best bid reaches 0.995. Rules 7 through 16 buy: each requires no open position or order (position under 5, order count zero), a positive BTC price, an ask between 0.9 and 0.99, and spread at or under 0.02, with entries gated by time-to-expiry windows of 8, 4, 2, 1 minute, or 30 seconds, each paired with a required strike distance (90, 70, 46.7, 35, 23.3 in the corresponding direction), matching EMA-versus-strike sign, and price change and velocity direction. Each entry buys 5 contracts with immediate-or-cancel execution.

Kalshi·Sep 15 to Oct 15 UTC·Created 12d ago

Net P&L

+$22

Return +440.4% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

0.32

Return Sharpe

Win rate

94.4%

433 trades

Max drawdown

-$10

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.