Level 5 Gate Study

Starter is $49/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades the most liquid KXBTC15M market on Kalshi, evaluating every 10 seconds against a 50-contract position cap with YES prices allowed between 0.05 and 0.99. Rules are checked in order and the first match ends the tick. The first two exits close an existing YES or NO position when that side's best bid falls to 0.35 or below; the next two close a YES position when Bitcoin's spot price is below the strike and a NO position when spot is above it. Two further exits sell an existing YES or NO position when its best bid reaches 0.995 while time to expiry is between 2 and 15 minutes. Entry into YES requires no open position and no working orders, a positive Bitcoin price, expiry within 5 minutes, spot at least 70 above the strike, EMA above the strike, positive 5-minute change, non-negative 1-minute velocity, a YES ask between 0.9 and 0.99, and a spread of 0.02 or less; entry into NO mirrors this with spot at least 70 below the strike and negative readings. Each entry buys 50 contracts and is sent immediate-or-cancel.

Kalshi·Sep 16 to Oct 15 UTC·Created 12d ago

Net P&L

+$185

Return +369.2% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

0.29

Return Sharpe

Win rate

96.0%

363 trades

Max drawdown

-$120

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.