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BTC Dual Trend Kalshi

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

On Kalshi's BTC 15-minute market it checks every 30 seconds and works through four rules in order, stopping at the first match. It sells everything if unrealized loss reaches 25 dollars or if two minutes or less remain; otherwise it buys one YES contract when Bitcoin's 5-minute and 1-hour changes are both positive, price is 0.35 to 0.65, and spread is 0.03 or less, or one NO contract when both changes are negative and price is exactly 0.65 with the same spread cap. Position size is capped at 100 contracts, with prices limited to 0.28 through 0.72.

Kalshi·Aug 1 to Aug 31·Created 17d ago
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Net P&L
-$9
Return -9.0% on risk capital
Sharpe
-0.07
Return Sharpe
Win rate
51.2%
4281 trades
Max drawdown
-$30
Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology
Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital
Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance
Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice
Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.