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BTC Dual Trend Confirmation

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M bitcoin market, checking every 30 seconds, using recent Bitcoin price changes from Coinbase to decide direction. It buys one YES contract when the 5-minute and 1-hour changes are both positive and price is between 0.35 and 0.65, or one NO contract when both changes are negative and price is exactly 0.65, in each case only if the spread is at most 0.03 and more than 2 minutes remain. It sells everything if unrealized loss reaches 25 or expiry is within 2 minutes, and holds at most 100 contracts.

Kalshi·Aug 1 to Aug 31·Created 18d ago

Net P&L

-$9

Return -9.0% on risk capital

Sharpe

-0.07

Return Sharpe

Win rate

51.2%

4281 trades

Max drawdown

-$30

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.