BTC Kalshi Mean Reversion

Starter is $29/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

The strategy trades the KXBTC15M market on Kalshi, checking every 60 seconds. It enters a position when the price moves above 50 cents or below 40 cents, expecting a reversion. Position size is capped at 10 contracts, trading only while the price stays between 5 and 85 cents, with a 30-second cooldown between trades.

Kalshi·May 14 to Jun 11 UTC·Created 4mo ago

Net P&L

-$1,492

Return -14918.1% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

-1.29

Return Sharpe

Win rate

13.3%

5532 trades

Max drawdown

-$1,524

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.