Momentum v4 Robustness

Starter is $9/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

The strategy trades the KXBTC15M market every 10 seconds, using Bitcoin price data. It enters a 25-contract 'yes' bet when upward momentum indicators are positive, spread is tight, and expiry is between 4 and 10 minutes away, and a 'no' bet on opposite conditions. Positions exit if profit exceeds 15, loss exceeds 25, or time to expiry reaches 2 minutes; orders only execute when market price is between 5 and 95 cents.

Kalshi·Aug 3 to Aug 9 UTC·Created 1mo ago

Net P&L

-$68

Return -136.6% on risk capital

Sharpe

-0.75

Return Sharpe

Win rate

64.6%

158 trades

Max drawdown

-$114

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.