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Forecast Breakout

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On Kalshi's KXHIGHNY market, every 60 seconds it checks NWS LaGuardia forecasts. It buys YES contracts in lots of 6 when the forecast high is above 77°F, price is below 0.42, and spread is below 0.08. It sells all when price exceeds 0.60, the forecast high drops below 73°F, under 30 minutes remain, or unrealized loss passes -25. Position cap is 30 contracts, and trades only between 0.10 and 0.90.

Kalshi·Jul 26 to Aug 20·Created 29d ago

Net P&L

+$88

Return +293.7% on risk capital

Sharpe

0.16

Return Sharpe

Win rate

100.0%

150 trades

Max drawdown

-$27

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.