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Momentum Persistence Hold

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This strategy trades the KXBTC15M market on Kalshi, checking every 2 minutes. It enters a position when the price momentum over the last 5 observations exceeds 0.05, and it only trades when the contract price is between 5 and 95 cents. The total position is capped at 500 contracts.

Kalshi·Mar 28 to Apr 19·Created 5mo ago

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Describe an idea, review the backtest, and start from the same workspace.

Net P&L

-$453

Return -90.7% on risk capital

Sharpe

-0.43

Return Sharpe

Win rate

67.8%

13512 trades

Max drawdown

-$484

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.