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Four-Asset Trend Stack Consensus

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On Kalshi's 15-minute SOL market it checks every 10 seconds, first selling any YES or NO position if that side's best bid is at or below 0.25. Otherwise, with no position and 10 minutes or less to expiry, it buys 20 YES contracts when the YES ask is between 0.45 and 0.55 and SOL, ETH, XRP, and BTC are all up over 5 minutes with BTC above its 50-period average and hourly VWAP, or 20 NO contracts on the mirror-image down conditions. Size is capped at 20 contracts, and with no position it cancels all resting orders.

Kalshi·Aug 11 to Sep 9·Created 9d ago

Net P&L

+$51

Return +257.2% on risk capital

Sharpe

0.12

Return Sharpe

Win rate

40.9%

386 trades

Max drawdown

-$93

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.